Every pick, tracked against the close
By sport
Fair-price drift broken out per sport. Small samples are flagged, never hidden.
| Sport | Picks | Closed | Drift beat rate | Avg fair drift | Avg EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 806 | n=806 | 27% | -3.0% | +5.0% |
| WNBA | 194 | n=194 | 32% | -2.1% | +4.2% |
By anchor tier
Tier 1 picks are anchored to Pinnacle, tier 2 to a true sharp book or exchange, tier 3 to the broad market. Stronger anchors should drift less against us.
| Anchor tier | Picks | Closed | Drift beat rate | Avg fair drift | Avg EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle-anchored | 412 | n=412 | 33% | -1.5% | +3.4% |
| Sharp-anchored | 586 | n=586 | 24% | -3.7% | +5.8% |
| Market-consensus | 2 | n=2small | 50% | -2.1% | +4.8% |
Settled record: player props
Every logged player-prop pick that has since been graded against the final box score. Flat 1 unit per pick, no staking model, pushes and voids counted separately so the win rate is only wins over decided bets. Game lines are reported separately below.
Player props: 741 of 4,713 logged picks settled (16%).
Game lines: 259 of 496 logged picks settled (52%). 115-143 on the settled few; too thin to call a record.
| Sport | Settled | Record | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 725 | 316-220 | 59% | +32.63u | +6.1% |
| WNBA | 275 | 111-154 | 42% | -24.39u | -9.2% |
WNBA model
The calibrated-logistic WNBA prop model publishes graded picks with real settlement, so this section shows a won/lost record alongside CLV.
Based on 324 settled and 314 closed model picks.
By the book
Where the edges landed. This is line-shopping made visible: which sportsbooks priced the picks EdgeFinder flagged, and how those prices held up to the close.
| Sportsbook | Picks | Closed | Drift beat rate | Avg fair drift | Avg EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 354 | n=354 | 21% | -2.8% | +4.5% |
| Novig | 198 | n=198 | 30% | -3.5% | +4.7% |
| ProphetX | 191 | n=191 | 37% | -0.8% | +3.7% |
| BetRivers | 134 | n=134 | 35% | -2.2% | +5.3% |
| DraftKings | 61 | n=61 | 20% | -5.4% | +7.4% |
| FanDuel | 23 | n=23 | 17% | -6.9% | +10.8% |
| Fanatics | 23 | n=23 | 30% | -3.6% | +4.1% |
| William Hill | 16 | n=16 | 25% | -5.8% | +4.9% |
Recent picks, graded
The last 25 picks to close. Entry price is what EdgeFinder saw at first detection; drift is how the consensus fair price moved after that.
| Sport | Pick | Book | Entry | EV | Drift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Cristopher SanchezOver 6.5 Strikeouts Pitcher 6.5 | Novig | -199 | +2.2% | +0.0% |
| MLB | Max SchuemannOver 1.5 Total Bases 1.5 | BetRivers | +260 | +2.3% | +0.0% |
| MLB | Will WarrenOver 4.5 Strikeouts Pitcher 4.5 | BetRivers | +114 | +2.7% | 0.0% |
| MLB | Kyle SchwarberOver 0.5 Home Runs 0.5 | Novig | +245 | +2.9% | +0.0% |
| MLB | Will WarrenOver 3.5 Strikeouts Pitcher 3.5 | BetMGM | -165 | +7.9% | +0.0% |
| MLB | Bryce HarperOver 0.5 Home Runs 0.5 | Novig | +365 | +2.2% | -9.9% |
| MLB | Justin CrawfordUnder 0.5 Total Bases 0.5 | BetMGM | +140 | +2.2% | -3.7% |
| MLB | Brandon MarshUnder 1.5 Total Bases 1.5 | ProphetX | -154 | +2.5% | -2.1% |
| MLB | Max SchuemannUnder 0.5 Hits 0.5 | BetMGM | +110 | +2.5% | -3.9% |
| MLB | Brandon MarshUnder 0.5 Rbis 0.5 | BetMGM | -200 | +3.2% | -1.3% |
| MLB | Paul GoldschmidtUnder 0.5 Hits 0.5 | BetMGM | +190 | +15.5% | -15.0% |
| MLB | Cristopher SanchezUnder 7.5 Strikeouts Pitcher 7.5 | Novig | -117 | +2.0% | -2.5% |
| MLB | Amed RosarioUnder 0.5 Runs 0.5 | BetMGM | -235 | +2.1% | -2.3% |
| MLB | Ali SanchezOver 0.5 Hits 0.5 | ProphetX | +124 | +8.4% | +2.9% |
| MLB | Trent GrishamUnder 0.5 Rbis 0.5 | BetMGM | -300 | +2.6% | -1.2% |
| MLB | Cristopher SanchezUnder 7.5 Strikeouts Pitcher 7.5 | ProphetX | -115 | +2.7% | -2.3% |
| MLB | Paul GoldschmidtOver 1.5 Hits 1.5 | ProphetX | +250 | +7.4% | -5.5% |
| MLB | Jasson DomínguezUnder 0.5 Rbis 0.5 | BetMGM | -275 | +2.1% | +0.5% |
| MLB | Amed RosarioUnder 0.5 Hits 0.5 | BetMGM | +165 | +4.4% | -1.4% |
| MLB | Zach NetoOver 0.5 Runs 0.5 | BetMGM | -105 | +3.1% | 0.0% |
| MLB | Carson WhisenhuntOver 4.5 Strikeouts Pitcher 4.5 | BetMGM | +110 | +6.1% | +0.0% |
| MLB | Carson WhisenhuntUnder 4.5 Strikeouts Pitcher 4.5 | FanDuel | +176 | +36.6% | -0.0% |
| MLB | SpreadChicago White Sox -1.5 -1.5 | DraftKings | +166 | +2.9% | -0.2% |
| MLB | TotalOver 9 9 | ProphetX | -101 | +2.5% | +0.6% |
| MLB | TotalOver 7.5 7.5 | Novig | +111 | +2.3% | -1.9% |
Two different honesty metrics live on this page. Fair drift compares the market's no-vig consensus price at detection against the same consensus at close: it shows how the market moved after we flagged a number, and because our picks are by definition outliers against that consensus, drift skews negative even on well-priced bets. Closing-line value (CLV), shown for the WNBA model, compares the actual price taken against the same book's price at close, the standard the sharp world grades itself on. The EV board's own same-book CLV started accruing on 2026-07-27 and will be published here once the sample is meaningful. Every pick is recorded once, at first detection, so there is no way to cherry-pick a better entry after the fact. How EdgeFinder works.
Record updated Sep 14, 2026. Refreshed continuously.